Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
